抖音運(yùn)營(yíng)市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)面臨結(jié)構(gòu)性挑戰(zhàn)，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局深度重構(gòu)

一、存量市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)白熱化，新增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)培育艱難

1、 The competition in the existing market is intensifying, and it is difficult to cultivate new growth points

下沉市場(chǎng)增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)能減弱

Weakening growth momentum in the sinking market

最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，抖音在下沉市場(chǎng)的用戶覆蓋率已達(dá)高位，三線及以下城市用戶滲透率突破58%大關(guān)。然而，用戶增速呈現(xiàn)明顯放緩趨勢(shì)，2025年同比增幅僅為12.3%，較往年顯著回落。尤其值得注意的是，縣域市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)"注意力分散化"特征，用戶平均同時(shí)使用3.2個(gè)短視頻平臺(tái)。為維持市場(chǎng)地位，抖音雖推出"百縣千品"等本土化運(yùn)營(yíng)策略，但獲客成本在兩年間近乎翻倍，從18元攀升至35元。

The latest data shows that the user coverage rate of Tiktok in the sinking market has reached a high level, and the user penetration rate in the third tier and lower cities has exceeded 58%. However, the user growth rate has shown a clear slowing trend, with a year-on-year increase of only 12.3% in 2025, a significant decline from previous years. Of particular note is that the county-level market exhibits a "dispersed attention" feature, with users using an average of 3.2 short video platforms simultaneously. In order to maintain its market position, Tiktok launched localization operation strategies such as "100 counties and 1000 products", but the cost of customer acquisition nearly doubled in two years, from 18 yuan to 35 yuan.

銀發(fā)群體爭(zhēng)奪戰(zhàn)加劇

The battle for silver haired population intensifies

中老年用戶群體雖規(guī)?？捎^（50歲以上用戶達(dá)1.57億），但競(jìng)爭(zhēng)態(tài)勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻。微信視頻號(hào)憑借社交關(guān)系鏈優(yōu)勢(shì)，在該年齡段實(shí)現(xiàn)23%的使用時(shí)長(zhǎng)增長(zhǎng)，其"銀發(fā)課堂"等特色功能顯著提升用戶粘性。相較之下，抖音的適老化改造（如語(yǔ)音交互優(yōu)化）效果有限，中老年用戶日均使用時(shí)長(zhǎng)1.2小時(shí)，低于平臺(tái)平均水平。

Although the scale of the middle-aged and elderly user group is considerable (with 157 million users aged 50 and above), the competitive situation is severe. WeChat video accounts have achieved a 23% increase in usage time in this age group with the advantage of social relationship chains, and their unique features such as "Silver Hair Classroom" have significantly increased user stickiness. In contrast, Tiktok's aging modification (such as voice interaction optimization) has limited effect. The average daily use time of middle-aged and elderly users is 1.2 hours, lower than the average level of the platform.

全球化協(xié)同效應(yīng)式微

The synergy effect of globalization is diminishing

雖然TikTok在海外市場(chǎng)下載量增長(zhǎng)顯著，但對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)業(yè)務(wù)的帶動(dòng)作用持續(xù)減弱。2025年第一季度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，海外內(nèi)容在國(guó)內(nèi)的播放量增速大幅放緩至17%，遠(yuǎn)不及2023年的爆發(fā)式增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí)，國(guó)際業(yè)務(wù)面臨的政策合規(guī)成本持續(xù)增加，制約了全球化戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施效果。

Although TikTok's download volume has grown significantly in overseas markets, its driving effect on domestic business continues to weaken. According to data from the first quarter of 2025, the growth rate of overseas content playback in China has significantly slowed down to 17%, far from the explosive growth in 2023. At the same time, the policy compliance costs faced by international businesses continue to increase, which constrains the implementation effectiveness of globalization strategies.

二、行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局深刻變革，流量爭(zhēng)奪進(jìn)入新階段

2、 The industry competition landscape is undergoing profound changes, and the competition for traffic has entered a new stage

社交生態(tài)帶來(lái)全新挑戰(zhàn)

Social ecology brings new challenges

微信視頻號(hào)依托其強(qiáng)大的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)，用戶規(guī)模突破5億大關(guān)。其獨(dú)特的"社交裂變+智能推薦"雙輪驅(qū)動(dòng)模式，使得內(nèi)容傳播深度達(dá)到3.2個(gè)層級(jí)，顯著高于行業(yè)平均水平。實(shí)際測(cè)試表明，相同內(nèi)容在視頻號(hào)平臺(tái)的完播率優(yōu)勢(shì)達(dá)19個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，這對(duì)傳統(tǒng)中心化流量分發(fā)模式構(gòu)成實(shí)質(zhì)性挑戰(zhàn)。

Relying on its powerful social network, WeChat Video has surpassed the user base of 500 million. Its unique "social fission+intelligent recommendation" dual wheel driving mode enables content dissemination depth to reach 3.2 levels, significantly higher than the industry average. Actual testing has shown that the completion rate advantage of the same content on video platforms is 19 percentage points, which poses a substantial challenge to the traditional centralized traffic distribution model.




垂直平臺(tái)精準(zhǔn)突圍

Precise breakthrough of vertical platform

專業(yè)內(nèi)容平臺(tái)通過(guò)差異化競(jìng)爭(zhēng)實(shí)現(xiàn)快速增長(zhǎng)。B站聚焦知識(shí)類內(nèi)容生態(tài)，成功吸引3000萬(wàn)高消費(fèi)力用戶群體，其付費(fèi)內(nèi)容轉(zhuǎn)化率顯著領(lǐng)先。小紅書(shū)則憑借AI賦能的新型購(gòu)物體驗(yàn)，在時(shí)尚品類實(shí)現(xiàn)113%的GMV增長(zhǎng)，成功分流抖音核心用戶群。

Professional content platforms achieve rapid growth through differentiated competition. Bilibili focuses on the knowledge-based content ecosystem and has successfully attracted 30 million high spending users, with a significantly leading conversion rate for paid content. Xiaohongshu has achieved 113% GMV growth in fashion category by virtue of AI enabled new shopping experience, and successfully diverted the core user group of Tiktok.

本地服務(wù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)膠著

Local service competition is deadlocked

盡管抖音生活服務(wù)覆蓋商家數(shù)量可觀，但在實(shí)際運(yùn)營(yíng)效率上仍存差距。商家反饋顯示，抖音訂單的履約成本較競(jìng)品高出18%，且因配送問(wèn)題導(dǎo)致的用戶差評(píng)率居高不下，這在一定程度上制約了業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展。

Although Tiktok Life Service covers a large number of businesses, there is still a gap in actual operation efficiency. Business feedback shows that the fulfillment cost of Tiktok orders is 18% higher than that of competing products, and the user's negative rating rate caused by distribution problems remains high, which to some extent restricts business development.

三、內(nèi)容創(chuàng)新遭遇瓶頸，生態(tài)健康度面臨考驗(yàn)

3、 Content innovation encounters bottlenecks, putting ecological health to the test

同質(zhì)化困局凸顯

The dilemma of homogenization is highlighted

平臺(tái)內(nèi)容結(jié)構(gòu)失衡問(wèn)題持續(xù)，娛樂(lè)類內(nèi)容占比仍超六成。用戶對(duì)重復(fù)性內(nèi)容的耐受度明顯下降，低互動(dòng)內(nèi)容占比兩年間增長(zhǎng)13個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。值得注意的是，雖然原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容的初始流量表現(xiàn)不佳，但其用戶留存優(yōu)勢(shì)顯著，反映出內(nèi)容質(zhì)量與短期流量之間的矛盾。

The problem of imbalanced platform content structure persists, with entertainment content still accounting for over 60%. The tolerance of users to repetitive content has significantly decreased, and the proportion of low interactive content has increased by 13 percentage points over the past two years. It is worth noting that although the initial traffic performance of original content is poor, its user retention advantage is significant, reflecting the contradiction between content quality and short-term traffic.

創(chuàng)作者生態(tài)承壓

The pressure on the creator ecosystem

中小創(chuàng)作者生存環(huán)境日趨嚴(yán)峻，月收入中位數(shù)維持在較低水平。日益嚴(yán)格的內(nèi)容審核和算法調(diào)整，使得新創(chuàng)作者的成長(zhǎng)難度加大，創(chuàng)作者流失率呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì)。

The living environment for small and medium-sized creators is becoming increasingly severe, and the median monthly income remains at a low level. The increasingly strict content review and algorithm adjustments have made it more difficult for new creators to grow, and the creator churn rate is showing an upward trend.

技術(shù)應(yīng)用的雙面性

The duality of technology application

雖然AI工具大幅提升了內(nèi)容生產(chǎn)效率，但過(guò)度依賴技術(shù)也帶來(lái)新的挑戰(zhàn)。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，AI生成內(nèi)容的用戶接受度明顯低于真人創(chuàng)作，這為平臺(tái)的內(nèi)容質(zhì)量管控提出了新的課題。

Although AI tools have greatly improved content production efficiency, excessive reliance on technology also brings new challenges. The data shows that the user acceptance of AI generated content is significantly lower than that of human created content, which poses a new challenge for the platform's content quality control.

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